Author and Harvard Business Professor Clayton Christensen and his colleagues are predicting that 50% of high school courses will be taught online by 2019. In Ed Week, the article explains how his past books have analyzed why leading companies in various industries—computers, electronics, retail, and others—were knocked off by upstarts that were better able to take advantage of innovations based on new technology and changing conditions. And now, schools are vulnerable for this “disruptive innovation”. He says, “The schools as they are now structured cannot do it,” he said in an interview, referring to adapting successfully to coming computer-based innovations. “Even the best managers in the world, if they were heads of departments in schools and the administrators of schools, could not do it.” Christensen and colleagues have a book about the topic coming out in June entitled: Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns.
Here is the “S Curve” showing the predicted growth of high school online education:
A separate article by Christensen in Education Next about “disruptive innovations” and how technology will transform schools is here. Forbes online also covered the announcement.
The Hoover Institution at Stanford also just completed a survey about parental views about online learning.
The book is due out in June. ISBN is: 0071592067.
50% Would I be surprised if that were to happen? Not really. When I began tracking online high schools, it was a small number. I now have more than a hundred on my list (and I know the number is significantly larger than that).
Will it be a good thing for all students? It’s hard to tell, but I think so. Is there a lot of work to do before most students can be successful working online?
Absolutely.
Thanks for the link to this article. I will definitely be reading this book. Although I normally comment using my own blog, I have been trying to dig through my personal learning network for others who are writing about elearning (rather than just educational technology or edtech in the classroom). I am helping to create our new online school in Douglas County eDCSD. Anyway, thanks again for the link.